The Numbers:
The BC Real Estate Association has reported that 2014 sales in British Columbia are up 15.2% over 2013, and that year over year increases were reported in all but one Real Estate Board area. This is the strongest rebound since 2009.
The South Okanagan Real Estate Board (SOREB) is finally seeing what appears to be a sustained recovery in the number of sales this year. In 2014, SOREB reported a total of 1757 residential sales across the board area, up about 25% from the 1401 sales in 2013 and just 1335 sales in 2012. This represents the highest number of residential sales in the Board area since the peak in 2007 of 2431 sales.
Oliver’s sales were up about 21% for total residential sales in 2014 of 149. This compares to just 123 sales in 2013 and 145 sales in 2012. 2007 saw 290 residential sales.
In Osoyoos the market has improved even more. There were 184 residential sales in 2014, up almost 43% from 129 sales in 2013 and only 111 in 2012. This compares to a total of 293 residential sales in 2007.
Across the SOREB area the total number of sales in all categories by the end of the year was 2,010 compared to just 1614 sales last year. The average sale price of a single family home ended the year at $375,529.
In Oliver 3 single family homes sold in December for a total in 2014 of 106 sales. This compares to 2 single family sales in December 2013 for a total last year of 92. The average single family home sold for $316,233. This compares to an average price at the top of the market in 2008 of $358,935.
This past year, there were 22 mobile home sales and 21 condo/townhome sales in Oliver. In addition, there were 6 farm sales, 11 lots and acreages and 5 commercial sales in 2014.
In Osoyoos, 5 single family homes sold in December for a total year to date of 110 homes. This compares to 2 sales in December 2013 and total year end sales last year of 81. The average sale price of a single family home sold in 2014 was $369,861. This compares to an average price of $425,012 at the peak in 2007.
In 2014, there were 3 mobile homes sold and 71 condo/townhomes sold in Osoyoos. In addition, there were 11 farms, 17 lots & acreages and 4 commercial property sales.
Beth’s Crystal Ball: Where does it go from here?
So, we’ve seen a year of pretty significant improvements in the number of real estate sales across the Province. The press is expounding on the return to ‘balanced’ markets, and even in some case ‘seller’s’ markets. What will happen here in our little corner of the South Okanagan?
I’ve been in this business pretty much full time since 1988. I’ve seen a number of ups and a number of downs. The real estate market is always a bit of a roller coaster. However, this last downturn seems a little different somehow. Other market places in the Province (most notably the larger communities) have seen a really solid rally, while in our smaller communities it has been a little spottier.
Here in Oliver and Osoyoos, 2014 started out gangbusters then began to fizzle by about mid-September. We closed the year up over all, but the rate of improvement had slowed. Kelowna, by contrast, continued to roar along moving into what they are terming almost a sellers’ market.
In the past, the market trends seem to be set in the lower mainland, then move out to the larger interior centres and then gradually ripple down to our smaller communities. So, in theory, what they’ve seen in Kelowna should be what we can anticipate here in the South. While I do think our demand and number of sales will show this trend in 2015, I think we are still some ways away from reaching balanced market conditions. At the end of the year there was still over 14 months worth of listings inventory for sale in Oliver and over 22 months worth in Osoyoos. It’s going to take awhile for the excess inventory to be reduced and to see any increase in prices.
Of course, other factors also come into play. Oil prices at ½ of what they were are creating a slowdown in the oil fields which will certainly negatively affect the Alberta economy. Albertans have traditionally been a large percentage of our buyers in this area, and we had recently seen a trend for younger people working in the oil patch buy here and commute to work up north.
On the other hand, Corrections employees anticipating a transfer to the new facility in Oliver are starting to make an appearance in the marketplace. There are said to be more than 280 full time positions when they open in 2016. I don’t think anyone expects that all or even most of these employees will buy a home in Oliver and Osoyoos, but even a smaller portion of them will have a significant impact on our communities and the real estate market. If Oliver and Osoyoos can expect even 1/3 of these people will choose to live here, that would mean more than 90 sales and/or rentals over the next couple of years. That is quite an impact when you consider that in 2014, there were a grand total of 333 residential sales between our two communities.
So, as always, there are some negative and some positive factors playing in our market here. I am optimistic that the positive will be the greater pull in 2015 and we will see continued improvement. And, the longer I’m in the business, the cloudier I realize my crystal ball is!
Everyone’s circumstance is different. For a personal consultation on your particular needs and desires, give me a call. I will listen to you and help you determine the best course of action for you.